{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Trend, India only: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_cash":"Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund)","w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_mid150":"Nifty Midcap 150","w_n100":"Nifty 100","w_small250":"Nifty Smallcap 250"}},"dates":["2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_cash":[7.39,47.85,72.71,62.51,31.8,29.59,24.27,10.01,40.49,28.5,46.52,68.04,49.85,34.9,29.63,23.12,51.87,5.76,4.17,12.84,7.95,29.44,45.55,67.49,61.55,61.44,83.9,74.48,79.07,73.16,78.24,77.73,50.53,61.16,63.61,48.98,31.91,21.84,33.75,16.3,18.33,12.4,21.08,10.05,24.07,24.58,41.73,23.31,19.6,34.73,11.62,13.38,16.72,16.0,26.1,53.07,52.96,80.36,75.02,54.81,45.28,79.75,74.3,43.6,67.54,74.27,65.01,78.3,71.92,48.03,30.74,58.2,64.98,69.93,44.07,55.83,26.13,14.88,20.86,24.75,13.39,31.73,53.26,74.94,58.26,53.55,82.56,84.13,82.4,67.5,41.53,53.06,42.21,46.69,52.39,34.31,23.56,23.65,22.39,26.65,27.46,34.14,29.6,23.86,33.91,13.25,22.46,59.94,53.89,49.1,64.84,38.32,66.66,63.21,32.83,55.85,49.92,72.26,75.0,41.56,22.41,29.18,16.53,4.1,9.1,3.36,19.95,59.33,77.16,27.64,23.23,27.18,30.71,29.83,26.51,21.53,29.62,27.47,27.47,31.34,39.9,28.09,55.22,69.29,37.5,71.42,70.95,61.61,55.37,73.63,67.53,68.37,40.0,57.27,57.29,37.28,47.5,44.19,46.63,54.25,58.85,43.34,30.52,29.03,26.69,9.18,8.59,70.53,59.8,59.86,24.98,17.98,18.3,37.44,9.21,9.79,9.38,21.17,34.76,42.51,30.6,8.33,25.84,22.44,32.55,19.74,20.89,29.88,45.55,59.99,52.5,42.32,38.32,87.3,88.38,54.62,28.95,53.84,54.17,17.45,49.85,56.61,75.0,63.27,35.67,13.29,23.98,17.33,36.18,36.6,50.0,14.84,5.78,10.58,21.83,26.28,15.86,4.21,4.04,14.93,7.47,0.84,42.21,53.22,49.12,55.61,62.53,40.82,29.26,20.74,19.17,33.31,41.87,41.66,13.37,33.02,41.72,68.62,47.57,83.46,50.96,52.3,32.75,48.26,25.0,69.23,78.2],"w_gold":[19.83,17.97,8.44,16.67,13.31,6.76,3.33,12.52,3.34,10.06,15.94,9.1,1.61,0.0,0.0,2.49,8.23,15.61,18.95,18.85,16.53,20.33,20.25,15.0,9.81,17.58,15.34,16.38,5.05,16.04,4.17,4.55,14.54,16.03,19.58,16.51,11.54,11.83,11.57,16.86,18.33,19.14,19.52,20.18,13.24,9.17,13.28,5.8,15.14,20.15,19.96,12.89,16.06,15.47,16.01,20.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