{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:20Z","name":"60/40: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[41.35,39.47,38.76,37.44,36.36,34.83,37.17,34.83,33.44,38.69,37.98,35.8,35.02,38.44,38.76,38.66,36.93,35.71,34.89,33.99,33.8,39.42,41.44,41.22,39.51,38.54,38.32,37.77,38.1,35.41,32.5,32.28,30.54,45.49,45.51,48.7,46.23,47.81,52.37,50.1,50.58,54.13,63.21,65.06,64.56,41.16,42.4,39.9,37.07,30.39,31.03,29.25,28.69,27.34,28.58,27.39,26.51,41.37,41.46,40.6,40.6,41.51,40.58,40.22,39.84,37.94,37.78,38.76,38.16,42.66,43.94,42.07,42.01,42.51,42.53,43.11,45.66,46.13,44.37,47.25,49.07,37.25,36.34,36.52,36.9,38.87,37.57,37.92,38.04,36.19,36.61,35.68,35.58,40.18,42.05,42.33,41.8,41.86,42.64,42.25,43.29,42.42,40.77,40.97,40.25,41.3,40.63,39.11,39.2,37.23,35.84,35.96,35.37,35.37,34.88,34.38,35.21,39.19,38.99,40.01,40.84,40.27,40.38,39.89,41.58,42.06,41.76,42.0,42.15,41.72,43.86,41.65,41.32,40.69,40.21,39.4,39.02,39.57,39.48,41.44,41.58,38.83,37.69,36.93,36.25,36.18,36.48,35.38,35.82,35.99,34.62,34.59,33.7,39.29,40.36,41.53,39.72,40.25,40.66,39.64,38.78,41.07,42.49,41.87,42.08,40.7,41.08,39.49,39.37,39.59,40.1,42.18,42.48,41.53,40.86,40.69,40.44,40.22,42.32,49.2,46.61,47.41,45.73,44.27,43.06,43.31,42.98,40.41,38.83,40.5,38.35,38.26,38.52,36.99,36.44,36.16,34.89,34.21,34.15,35.01,34.44,40.46,41.49,40.58,40.48,41.22,42.59,40.67,39.75,40.37,39.49,39.04,39.86,41.08,41.71,41.99,41.2,40.5,39.49,38.63,38.92,38.47,39.18,37.76,36.26,39.75,39.49,39.42,38.58,38.68,37.21,36.53,36.49,36.22,37.76,37.93,38.37,41.18,43.28,41.84,41.58,41.04,40.13,40.92,41.24,41.12,40.23,40.07,40.16,40.9,41.02,43.61,41.43,41.47,41.57,41.14,41.12,42.45,42.25],"w_n500":[58.65,60.53,61.24,62.56,63.64,65.17,62.83,65.17,66.56,61.31,62.02,64.2,64.98,61.56,61.24,61.34,63.07,64.29,65.11,66.01,66.2,60.58,58.56,58.78,60.49,61.46,61.68,62.23,61.9,64.59,67.5,67.72,69.46,54.51,54.49,51.3,53.77,52.19,47.63,49.9,49.42,45.87,36.79,34.94,35.44,58.84,57.6,60.1,62.93,69.61,68.97,70.75,71.31,72.66,71.42,72.61,73.49,58.63,58.54,59.4,59.4,58.49,59.42,59.78,60.16,62.06,62.22,61.24,61.84,57.34,56.06,57.93,57.99,57.49,57.47,56.89,54.34,53.87,55.63,52.75,50.93,62.75,63.66,63.48,63.1,61.13,62.43,62.08,61.96,63.81,63.39,64.32,64.42,59.82,57.95,57.67,58.2,58.14,57.36,57.75,56.71,57.58,59.23,59.03,59.75,58.7,59.37,60.89,60.8,62.77,64.16,64.04,64.63,64.63,65.12,65.62,64.79,60.81,61.01,59.99,59.16,59.73,59.62,60.11,58.42,57.94,58.24,58.0,57.85,58.28,56.14,58.35,58.68,59.31,59.79,60.6,60.98,60.43,60.52,58.56,58.42,61.17,62.31,63.07,63.75,63.82,63.52,64.62,64.18,64.01,65.38,65.41,66.3,60.71,59.64,58.47,60.28,59.75,59.34,60.36,61.22,58.93,57.51,58.13,57.92,59.3,58.92,60.51,60.63,60.41,59.9,57.82,57.52,58.47,59.14,59.31,59.56,59.78,57.68,50.8,53.39,52.59,54.27,55.73,56.94,56.69,57.02,59.59,61.17,59.5,61.65,61.74,61.48,63.01,63.56,63.84,65.11,65.79,65.85,64.99,65.56,59.54,58.51,59.42,59.52,58.78,57.41,59.33,60.25,59.63,60.51,60.96,60.14,58.92,58.29,58.01,58.8,59.5,60.51,61.37,61.08,61.53,60.82,62.24,63.74,60.25,60.51,60.58,61.42,61.32,62.79,63.47,63.51,63.78,62.24,62.07,61.63,58.82,56.72,58.16,58.42,58.96,59.87,59.08,58.76,58.88,59.77,59.93,59.84,59.1,58.98,56.39,58.57,58.53,58.43,58.86,58.88,57.55,57.75]}}