{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-14T18:04:36Z","name":"1/N, with global: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-14","n_trials":197,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-14","pe_n500":"2026-10-14","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_mid150":"Nifty Midcap 150","w_n100":"Nifty 100","w_small250":"Nifty Smallcap 250","w_spx_inr":"S&P 500 in rupees (price index)"}},"dates":["2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-14"],"series":{"w_gold":[15.16,17.07,15.62,16.25,17.37,18.12,16.54,16.52,17.25,16.21,16.5,17.34,18.24,16.29,17.19,15.4,15.52,16.22,16.88,16.23,16.43,18.04,16.36,15.37,15.65,16.15,16.7,16.69,16.47,16.43,16.39,16.61,20.49,17.49,16.93,15.33,18.27,19.48,15.38,15.7,19.99,18.34,19.58,16.11,18.35,18.28,15.1,14.71,14.54,16.59,16.03,16.52,16.3,17.49,16.8,15.37,16.63,17.24,15.83,16.89,18.09,16.29,15.45,17.53,16.07,16.81,17.74,16.57,17.09,17.49,16.27,17.47,16.83,16.52,17.72,19.76,15.91,16.2,18.28,16.46,16.02,16.31,16.45,17.3,17.15,16.18,16.92,17.14,15.97,16.72,16.38,16.11,16.53,17.07,16.83,15.22,16.59,15.99,18.6,18.59,15.63,16.19,16.38,15.72,17.29,16.59,15.06,16.98,14.14,16.57,16.63,16.3,16.05,15.84,16.41,17.01,16.87,15.68,16.63,17.39,16.41,16.62,15.31,18.29,16.16,16.62,15.78,16.46,18.34,18.78,15.84,16.75,15.67,17.1,16.18,16.28,16.84,16.19,16.45,16.5,16.7,16.55,15.91,16.46,16.72,16.57,16.38,17.18,16.64,16.0,16.51,16.21,16.96,17.05,17.27,16.44,16.86,16.64,15.82,16.41,17.64,17.58,15.94,17.16,17.44,16.64,15.57,16.75,16.87,17.54,17.81,18.09,15.66,16.68,16.15,16.91,16.99,17.72,19.12,15.0,16.25,18.29,17.46,15.28,16.38,16.76,14.82,16.51,16.59,15.4,16.02,17.24,16.39,15.46,16.6,16.26,15.9,16.9,16.98,16.34,17.03,18.07,16.05,17.0,16.82,17.41,15.8,16.23,16.96,16.07,16.99,17.4,17.44,16.3,17.64,16.34,16.26,15.66,16.49,16.5,16.25,18.1,16.07,16.15,16.11,16.37,17.71,17.29,16.73,16.16,15.85,16.93,17.17,17.87,16.06,16.76,18.18,18.12,16.76,16.79,16.16,16.16,16.94,17.32,17.96,16.74,17.38,17.23,19.97,15.95,15.78,15.53,17.05,15.14,16.73,18.19,16.6,16.5],"w_gsec5":[16.09,16.47,16.02,15.92,16.23,17.65,15.68,16.3,15.97,16.43,15.78,16.16,17.75,17.16,16.58,16.07,16.42,16.33,16.41,16.64,16.33,17.33,16.96,15.88,16.51,16.58,16.69,16.29,15.61,15.78,16.25,15.82,18.76,16.7,17.67,15.67,16.87,17.81,15.84,16.96,18.05,21.43,18.03,16.64,17.24,16.87,15.46,15.8,14.06,17.03,15.76,16.05,15.86,17.15,15.65,16.43,17.28,16.66,16.44,16.43,16.98,16.31,16.34,16.51,16.1,16.53,17.11,16.71,17.64,17.0,16.42,16.29,16.73,16.95,16.64,17.25,17.03,15.61,17.44,17.73,15.61,16.08,16.43,16.68,17.51,16.09,16.82,16.69,15.99,16.91,16.25,16.75,16.97,17.44,16.85,16.95,16.57,17.09,16.12,16.16,16.67,16.13,16.54,16.42,17.29,16.19,16.32,16.41,15.95,15.89,16.98,16.34,16.78,16.7,16.48,16.66,16.59,16.64,17.11,16.86,16.66,16.86,16.53,17.24,16.9,16.27,16.62,16.8,17.44,17.31,16.1,16.41,16.66,16.25,16.49,16.52,16.78,16.8,17.56,16.68,16.08,16.18,16.56,16.33,16.85,16.78,16.45,16.78,16.62,16.08,16.54,16.12,16.47,17.08,17.28,15.94,16.86,16.92,16.39,16.08,17.71,17.19,16.92,16.95,16.69,16.91,16.32,16.63,16.86,16.73,17.57,16.4,16.27,16.19,16.6,16.41,16.31,17.4,19.7,15.49,16.37,15.76,15.96,15.89,16.73,16.79,15.58,16.13,16.74,16.08,16.81,16.48,16.11,16.31,16.24,16.64,16.46,16.37,16.98,16.36,17.0,17.3,16.12,16.73,16.94,17.39,15.84,16.48,16.9,16.17,16.52,16.93,16.83,16.9,16.77,16.4,16.38,16.22,16.16,16.57,16.76,16.79,15.79,16.18,16.4,16.55,16.6,16.2,16.63,16.21,16.64,16.53,16.46,16.98,16.78,16.81,17.02,17.57,16.23,16.58,16.12,16.22,16.79,16.51,16.4,16.3,16.62,16.59,16.31,16.69,17.78,15.73,16.37,17.0,16.56,16.26,17.08,16.49],"w_mid150":[17.19,16.39,17.48,17.22,16.7,15.69,16.89,17.04,16.96,17.04,17.3,16.63,15.03,15.82,16.18,17.66,17.32,16.94,16.84,16.81,16.8,15.86,16.55,17.61,17.07,17.16,16.77,16.67,17.43,17.12,17.73,17.52,14.19,16.41,15.38,17.69,15.67,14.63,17.9,16.63,14.92,13.95,15.57,18.0,15.78,16.25,17.21,17.71,19.77,16.59,17.08,16.73,17.36,16.25,17.28,16.83,16.69,16.11,16.98,16.93,16.27,17.22,17.08,16.8,16.74,16.66,15.73,16.07,15.56,15.96,17.2,16.49,16.61,16.72,16.58,15.46,16.34,16.65,15.73,15.85,17.93,17.24,16.53,16.25,16.15,16.97,16.36,16.36,17.58,16.58,17.19,17.02,16.29,15.92,16.35,16.86,16.44,16.09,15.65,15.92,17.33,17.03,16.72,17.11,16.06,16.77,17.73,16.83,18.19,17.18,16.36,16.73,16.94,16.92,17.0,16.74,16.9,16.8,16.51,16.06,16.91,16.66,17.08,16.05,17.03,16.59,16.95,16.71,15.91,15.55,17.26,16.77,16.82,16.86,16.95,17.09,16.8,16.97,15.8,16.46,16.98,17.05,17.3,17.01,16.21,16.76,16.82,16.67,16.6,17.19,16.96,17.29,16.04,16.39,16.61,17.05,16.05,16.44,16.94,16.99,15.38,16.7,16.99,16.97,15.78,16.43,17.33,16.12,16.97,16.24,15.63,16.28,17.14,17.12,16.77,16.56,17.01,16.46,14.23,17.5,16.59,16.81,16.53,17.43,16.97,16.54,17.73,16.76,16.64,17.57,16.78,16.22,17.03,17.18,16.76,16.66,17.3,16.37,16.34,16.67,16.61,15.88,16.85,16.82,16.34,16.34,17.37,17.15,16.68,16.54,16.48,16.52,16.2,16.87,16.23,16.97,17.04,17.21,16.99,17.14,17.08,16.08,17.18,16.93,16.95,16.56,16.32,16.92,16.76,16.92,17.08,16.58,16.64,15.84,16.56,16.81,15.76,15.7,17.24,17.04,17.04,16.82,16.31,16.35,16.22,16.89,16.72,16.47,15.63,17.18,16.33,17.23,16.69,17.04,16.74,16.38,16.16,16.7],"w_n100":[17.3,17.27,16.76,16.34,17.43,15.74,17.28,17.08,17.01,17.0,17.15,16.34,15.14,18.03,16.63,17.18,17.08,17.07,16.96,16.57,16.67,15.78,16.99,17.84,16.92,16.7,17.15,16.75,17.43,18.01,16.15,16.41,15.4,16.28,16.79,17.25,15.64,15.47,17.91,16.38,15.97,14.82,15.84,17.27,16.56,16.75,17.83,17.57,17.43,16.32,16.91,15.99,17.36,16.02,17.06,16.73,16.04,16.75,17.07,16.26,16.49,17.35,16.76,16.45,17.54,16.24,16.3,16.9,15.86,16.51,17.16,16.2,16.54,16.95,16.14,15.52,16.6,17.2,15.81,16.33,17.49,16.59,16.41,16.34,16.18,17.37,16.58,16.62,17.33,16.53,16.85,16.78,16.96,16.37,16.59,17.29,16.43,16.77,16.31,15.6,17.14,17.21,16.19,16.72,16.43,16.86,17.44,16.23,17.1,16.44,16.96,17.04,16.53,17.17,16.84,16.01,17.23,16.81,16.18,16.11,16.78,16.84,16.63,16.05,16.91,16.4,16.42,16.65,16.32,15.96,17.06,16.61,17.23,16.45,16.95,16.75,16.34,16.52,16.32,16.74,16.86,16.6,16.9,16.58,17.03,16.52,17.09,16.42,16.35,16.89,16.25,16.86,17.25,16.24,16.57,16.97,16.78,16.89,17.28,16.66,16.47,16.04,17.48,16.7,16.34,16.51,17.28,16.77,16.75,16.23,16.16,16.43,17.34,16.84,16.69,16.61,15.95,16.39,15.33,17.86,16.8,16.29,16.84,16.73,16.49,16.96,17.18,17.09,16.33,16.53,16.61,16.01,17.17,16.57,16.34,17.76,16.9,16.46,16.04,16.52,16.68,16.47,16.81,16.54,16.57,16.55,17.09,16.92,16.55,17.08,16.79,16.3,16.06,16.58,16.5,16.86,16.7,16.86,16.52,16.15,16.88,16.38,16.7,17.22,16.38,16.89,16.56,16.43,16.5,16.61,17.01,16.57,16.65,15.84,16.57,16.32,16.51,16.36,17.14,17.01,16.26,16.8,16.28,16.53,16.32,16.82,16.77,16.53,15.77,16.87,16.16,16.65,16.12,17.05,16.81,15.9,16.21,16.69],"w_small250":[17.86,16.43,17.58,18.53,16.03,15.29,17.1,17.01,16.62,16.55,17.11,17.31,16.14,15.35,16.42,17.61,17.19,16.9,16.54,17.0,17.32,16.07,16.34,17.6,17.34,17.08,16.71,16.91,17.34,17.16,17.91,18.13,14.04,16.4,15.7,17.41,15.86,15.72,17.16,16.86,14.54,13.76,14.84,17.09,15.57,15.98,17.32,17.79,20.3,15.97,17.11,17.66,16.99,16.03,17.12,17.6,16.78,16.03,16.9,16.87,15.94,17.31,16.86,16.83,16.84,16.8,15.36,16.47,15.41,16.0,16.85,16.8,16.5,16.58,16.8,15.36,16.75,16.49,15.15,15.59,17.82,17.11,16.4,16.37,15.89,17.02,16.35,16.34,17.5,16.51,16.85,16.79,16.11,15.48,16.09,16.89,15.99,15.98,15.36,16.14,17.11,17.28,17.04,17.42,16.11,16.96,17.72,17.1,18.96,17.51,16.23,16.74,16.96,16.91,16.39,16.69,16.77,16.57,16.53,16.18,16.51,16.51,17.61,15.67,17.21,16.56,17.14,16.95,15.46,14.88,17.23,16.99,16.63,17.32,16.79,16.89,16.82,17.12,15.57,16.53,17.05,16.99,17.28,17.29,16.3,16.68,16.79,16.41,16.44,17.59,16.98,17.18,15.93,16.39,15.88,16.91,15.94,15.78,16.83,16.72,14.71,16.66,16.74,17.13,15.65,16.27,17.51,16.21,16.77,15.77,15.28,16.15,17.3,16.73,16.56,16.69,17.22,16.24,13.27,17.1,16.42,17.29,16.75,17.81,17.34,16.42,17.66,17.18,16.77,17.81,16.54,16.64,17.47,17.39,17.42,15.91,17.35,16.32,16.6,17.18,16.73,15.48,16.99,16.7,15.83,16.05,16.97,17.08,16.82,16.44,16.78,16.57,16.21,16.57,16.09,17.19,17.05,17.12,17.22,17.32,17.01,16.37,17.28,16.83,17.36,16.39,15.71,17.37,16.24,17.33,16.99,16.74,16.54,16.26,16.45,16.7,14.93,15.17,17.6,16.58,17.45,17.05,16.17,16.27,16.23,16.68,15.91,16.46,15.38,17.03,16.55,17.65,16.48,17.51,16.63,16.49,16.66,16.8],"w_spx_inr":[16.4,16.37,16.55,15.73,16.24,17.53,16.51,16.04,16.2,16.77,16.16,16.22,17.69,17.36,17.0,16.09,16.48,16.54,16.36,16.75,16.45,16.91,16.8,15.7,16.51,16.32,15.98,16.69,15.71,15.49,15.55,15.51,17.12,16.72,17.54,16.65,17.69,16.89,15.81,17.47,16.53,17.71,16.12,14.88,16.5,15.88,17.07,16.43,13.9,17.51,17.12,17.04,16.13,17.06,16.08,17.04,16.59,17.21,16.78,16.61,16.23,15.52,17.52,15.88,16.71,16.96,17.76,17.28,18.44,17.03,16.1,16.75,16.78,16.28,16.11,16.66,17.36,17.86,17.58,18.03,15.14,16.68,17.78,17.06,17.13,16.37,16.97,16.85,15.63,16.75,16.47,16.54,17.15,17.71,17.31,16.79,17.98,18.07,17.96,17.58,16.12,16.15,17.12,16.6,16.82,16.63,15.73,16.45,15.66,16.41,16.85,16.85,16.74,16.46,16.88,16.89,15.63,17.5,17.04,17.4,16.73,16.51,16.84,16.7,15.79,17.56,17.08,16.43,16.52,17.53,16.51,16.48,16.99,16.01,16.64,16.47,16.42,16.4,18.3,17.09,16.33,16.64,16.05,16.33,16.88,16.69,16.47,16.53,17.35,16.25,16.75,16.33,17.35,16.86,16.39,16.69,17.51,17.32,16.74,17.14,18.09,15.83,15.93,15.11,18.09,17.24,16.0,17.51,15.79,17.49,17.55,16.65,16.29,16.45,17.23,16.83,16.53,15.78,18.35,17.06,17.57,15.56,16.46,16.87,16.09,16.53,17.03,16.33,16.92,16.61,17.24,17.41,15.83,17.09,16.65,16.78,16.09,17.57,17.07,16.94,15.94,16.8,17.17,16.2,17.5,16.26,16.93,16.14,16.08,17.7,16.44,16.28,17.26,16.78,16.77,16.23,16.57,16.93,16.62,16.32,16.02,16.3,16.99,16.69,16.8,17.24,17.1,15.79,17.15,16.78,16.42,16.65,16.54,17.2,17.58,16.61,17.61,17.08,15.04,16.02,16.97,16.95,17.51,17.02,16.89,16.57,16.6,16.72,16.94,16.28,17.4,17.2,17.28,16.27,16.54,16.78,17.3,16.81]}}