{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Nifty 50, graded by trend score: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_cash":"Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund)","w_n50":"Nifty 50"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_cash":[54.53,12.42,0.0,0.0,8.17,0.0,49.98,4.1,3.85,3.67,3.6,3.28,3.16,46.97,52.65,37.51,4.15,3.98,3.84,3.66,24.83,0.0,38.65,50.01,8.33,0.0,4.11,3.95,49.1,0.0,0.0,12.42,0.0,50.65,66.57,79.17,49.64,75.0,96.26,87.51,79.08,100.0,100.0,100.0,83.16,91.59,91.58,49.65,29.15,16.01,20.6,8.12,0.0,0.0,8.73,4.23,4.16,33.85,57.77,8.28,8.21,58.34,12.6,4.19,16.67,3.88,12.65,38.09,32.86,83.33,83.84,61.93,29.63,95.77,87.27,59.2,100.0,95.75,54.17,100.0,100.0,45.3,24.63,62.02,87.49,95.82,57.57,91.62,12.86,0.0,12.68,36.26,4.17,4.11,54.87,79.02,33.24,25.22,91.32,71.15,100.0,49.99,20.4,58.11,0.0,41.86,70.02,0.0,0.0,4.06,3.88,4.15,4.14,16.65,20.19,0.0,45.73,0.0,0.0,70.84,75.08,70.69,66.55,41.19,95.75,87.29,59.0,87.51,87.48,100.0,100.0,58.28,41.92,20.88,28.67,8.12,24.61,0.0,46.09,82.84,91.4,20.98,8.35,0.0,16.54,0.0,12.48,0.0,20.58,20.98,0.0,4.24,0.0,0.0,54.38,83.31,12.5,28.73,0.0,0.0,0.0,37.59,91.57,78.61,58.44,78.91,95.78,12.37,4.16,12.51,24.86,75.12,87.42,33.34,20.44,12.43,0.0,0.0,30.72,100.0,82.48,82.16,37.54,20.92,12.5,54.11,4.27,4.02,3.75,3.85,0.0,37.74,45.38,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,41.76,57.29,45.82,75.0,49.65,58.12,95.64,100.0,53.41,16.74,41.57,12.5,4.06,49.88,70.82,79.25,91.52,70.47,24.79,12.2,0.0,37.57,20.87,62.58,12.37,3.99,20.84,0.0,24.8,20.87,4.24,4.0,3.87,0.0,0.0,62.62,74.5,87.5,95.72,100.0,58.51,37.51,12.59,8.17,54.08,46.4,50.02,4.19,4.14,24.87,79.08,67.13,100.0,79.24,91.7,54.25,91.54,70.83,100.0,100.0],"w_n50":[45.47,87.58,100.0,100.0,91.83,100.0,50.02,95.9,96.15,96.33,96.4,96.72,96.84,53.03,47.35,62.49,95.85,96.02,96.16,96.34,75.17,100.0,61.35,49.99,91.67,100.0,95.89,96.05,50.9,100.0,100.0,87.58,100.0,49.35,33.43,20.83,50.36,25.0,3.74,12.49,20.92,0.0,0.0,0.0,16.84,8.41,8.42,50.35,70.85,83.99,79.4,91.88,100.0,100.0,91.27,95.77,95.84,66.15,42.23,91.72,91.79,41.66,87.4,95.81,83.33,96.12,87.35,61.91,67.14,16.67,16.16,38.07,70.37,4.23,12.73,40.8,0.0,4.25,45.83,0.0,0.0,54.7,75.37,37.98,12.51,4.18,42.43,8.38,87.14,100.0,87.32,63.74,95.83,95.89,45.13,20.98,66.76,74.78,8.68,28.85,0.0,50.01,79.6,41.89,100.0,58.14,29.98,100.0,100.0,95.94,96.12,95.85,95.86,83.35,79.81,100.0,54.27,100.0,100.0,29.16,24.92,29.31,33.45,58.81,4.25,12.71,41.0,12.49,12.52,0.0,0.0,41.72,58.08,79.12,71.33,91.88,75.39,100.0,53.91,17.16,8.6,79.02,91.65,100.0,83.46,100.0,87.52,100.0,79.42,79.02,100.0,95.76,100.0,100.0,45.62,16.69,87.5,71.27,100.0,100.0,100.0,62.41,8.43,21.39,41.56,21.09,4.22,87.63,95.84,87.49,75.14,24.88,12.58,66.66,79.56,87.57,100.0,100.0,69.28,0.0,17.52,17.84,62.46,79.08,87.5,45.89,95.73,95.98,96.25,96.15,100.0,62.26,54.62,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,58.24,42.71,54.18,25.0,50.35,41.88,4.36,0.0,46.59,83.26,58.43,87.5,95.94,50.12,29.18,20.75,8.48,29.53,75.21,87.8,100.0,62.43,79.13,37.42,87.63,96.01,79.16,100.0,75.2,79.13,95.76,96.0,96.13,100.0,100.0,37.38,25.5,12.5,4.28,0.0,41.49,62.49,87.41,91.83,45.92,53.6,49.98,95.81,95.86,75.13,20.92,32.87,0.0,20.76,8.3,45.75,8.46,29.17,0.0,0.0]}}