{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Minimum variance: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_gold":[25.25,24.68,15.36,16.17,16.74,14.6,14.16,13.22,10.03,7.24,6.09,5.94,6.26,5.48,6.48,4.92,3.89,3.97,4.23,4.39,4.13,4.75,4.84,4.75,4.54,4.93,5.76,6.38,7.86,8.79,8.96,8.68,8.15,7.59,10.97,9.63,8.37,9.0,8.84,7.45,7.41,9.43,7.34,9.51,8.02,9.15,10.81,10.01,9.72,11.29,12.81,13.34,13.63,13.72,13.9,17.21,16.86,18.35,18.52,17.92,19.96,23.52,6.72,6.67,6.32,6.04,6.36,5.64,5.55,6.37,6.62,5.85,6.87,6.88,7.46,8.22,7.91,7.92,6.75,7.42,6.79,7.19,7.14,7.28,7.14,6.78,6.82,6.76,7.4,7.27,8.88,9.0,8.45,8.99,8.8,8.09,7.51,15.58,14.04,15.87,19.1,17.18,18.04,17.51,17.02,18.19,18.5,17.02,18.49,17.4,20.23,20.29,18.56,14.54,12.23,12.72,10.55,10.91,9.59,8.93,9.02,8.74,8.96,8.29,8.64,11.57,11.76,11.33,12.0,12.57,12.19,11.1,11.6,11.21,12.47,10.67,10.79,11.76,7.75,7.65,9.57,10.18,10.68,10.65,9.89,9.84,10.2,11.89,11.07,11.04,10.93,10.6,8.31,9.29,10.2,11.04,12.82,14.65,15.32,13.9,15.22,15.44,16.67,16.36,17.24,18.84,16.59,16.69,16.76,15.67,15.98,14.88,14.77,11.83,13.1,12.26,13.03,12.52,11.5,10.34,22.53,22.53,25.02,22.12,20.03,20.0,20.73,19.82,20.45,19.77,18.7,18.84,21.22,20.49,19.73,7.33,7.21,7.54,7.7,7.13,7.45,6.77,8.33,12.48,13.76,14.56,14.53,14.34,13.2,13.99,13.23,13.79,13.63,14.26,13.34,14.18,6.05,4.7,3.39,1.67,1.31,0.98,0.65,1.38,2.74,2.73,2.51,2.24,2.45,4.36,4.67,14.48,14.86,14.02,13.58,12.51,10.49,11.67,10.96,10.26,10.76,8.59,9.01,6.25,6.09,6.39,5.62,4.21,4.4,5.09,3.39,4.07,2.73,2.78,1.98,1.73,1.91,1.66,1.37],"w_gsec5":[67.66,67.47,77.85,75.3,74.18,77.3,79.28,81.24,86.4,88.69,88.17,88.23,87.57,89.2,87.86,91.3,92.35,92.28,92.05,91.79,92.06,92.21,92.2,92.4,92.85,93.08,91.69,90.84,89.13,89.94,89.98,90.94,91.43,91.79,88.58,89.49,89.52,88.81,89.02,89.97,91.29,89.15,90.82,87.88,88.97,88.31,87.03,86.58,86.57,84.51,83.33,82.73,82.49,82.05,82.27,79.81,78.73,77.01,75.32,75.3,73.73,70.07,90.52,89.05,87.62,86.23,86.3,87.95,87.76,88.07,88.34,90.39,89.8,89.83,90.76,89.56,90.21,85.36,86.1,86.54,86.6,84.57,84.73,84.49,84.87,85.28,83.86,85.11,84.18,86.24,85.53,85.31,85.76,85.15,86.37,86.87,87.18,67.08,69.6,69.57,65.02,67.36,68.6,70.38,70.82,70.15,69.07,69.97,69.35,72.6,70.92,70.34,73.6,80.74,82.33,81.97,84.81,84.64,86.71,87.61,87.93,88.67,89.3,90.13,89.29,83.7,84.41,84.91,84.77,84.09,84.47,84.54,84.41,84.63,82.22,82.75,82.69,81.7,86.93,87.32,83.92,83.14,82.26,82.03,82.39,81.75,81.08,78.89,82.24,82.3,81.55,80.88,84.08,82.21,81.53,81.58,79.4,77.75,77.65,78.84,78.42,79.33,79.23,79.02,78.82,77.57,79.4,78.8,78.23,79.9,79.69,80.66,79.38,81.72,78.95,78.99,77.76,77.7,79.44,82.18,70.16,72.56,70.59,69.85,71.83,72.17,71.52,71.74,71.5,72.86,73.81,74.38,63.44,58.39,56.32,86.65,86.14,86.66,86.02,87.1,86.44,87.76,86.73,79.89,78.31,76.67,77.53,77.44,79.45,79.25,80.23,80.11,80.36,79.69,80.28,78.98,89.55,91.45,92.45,94.27,95.29,94.88,94.25,92.55,91.77,91.99,92.11,92.25,93.84,92.03,91.87,77.74,76.18,77.97,79.16,80.71,83.42,82.38,84.02,84.64,84.09,87.01,85.65,88.68,89.53,89.0,89.75,90.3,89.74,89.04,88.33,83.0,85.79,87.01,87.99,89.47,90.25,90.79,91.88],"w_n500":[7.09,7.85,6.79,8.53,9.08,8.1,6.56,5.54,3.57,4.07,5.74,5.83,6.17,5.32,5.66,3.78,3.76,3.75,3.73,3.82,3.81,3.04,2.96,2.85,2.61,2.0,2.54,2.78,3.01,1.27,1.06,0.38,0.42,0.62,0.46,0.88,2.11,2.19,2.14,2.59,1.3,1.42,1.84,2.61,3.02,2.54,2.16,3.41,3.72,4.2,3.86,3.93,3.88,4.23,3.83,2.97,4.41,4.64,6.16,6.78,6.32,6.41,2.76,4.28,6.06,7.74,7.35,6.41,6.69,5.56,5.04,3.76,3.33,3.29,1.78,2.22,1.88,6.72,7.16,6.04,6.62,8.24,8.14,8.23,7.99,7.95,9.32,8.13,8.42,6.5,5.59,5.69,5.79,5.86,4.82,5.04,5.3,17.34,16.36,14.56,15.88,15.46,13.36,12.11,12.15,11.65,12.43,13.01,12.16,10.0,8.85,9.37,7.83,4.73,5.44,5.31,4.64,4.45,3.7,3.47,3.04,2.6,1.74,1.58,2.07,4.73,3.83,3.75,3.22,3.35,3.34,4.35,3.99,4.16,5.31,6.58,6.53,6.54,5.32,5.03,6.51,6.69,7.06,7.33,7.72,8.41,8.72,9.22,6.69,6.66,7.52,8.52,7.61,8.5,8.27,7.38,7.78,7.6,7.03,7.25,6.36,5.22,4.09,4.62,3.94,3.59,4.0,4.52,5.01,4.43,4.34,4.47,5.84,6.45,7.95,8.75,9.21,9.79,9.06,7.48,7.31,4.92,4.39,8.03,8.14,7.83,7.75,8.43,8.05,7.36,7.49,6.78,15.34,21.12,23.95,6.02,6.65,5.8,6.28,5.77,6.11,5.47,4.93,7.64,7.94,8.77,7.95,8.22,7.34,6.76,6.53,6.1,6.01,6.05,6.38,6.84,4.4,3.85,4.15,4.05,3.4,4.14,5.1,6.07,5.5,5.28,5.38,5.51,3.71,3.61,3.46,7.78,8.96,8.01,7.26,6.78,6.09,5.96,5.01,5.09,5.15,4.41,5.34,5.07,4.38,4.61,4.63,5.49,5.86,5.87,8.28,12.93,11.47,10.21,10.02,8.8,7.84,7.55,6.75]}}