{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Golden butterfly: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_cash":"Cash (91-day T-bill, as a liquid fund)","w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_gsec10":"G-sec 10-year (synthetic, constant maturity)","w_n500":"Nifty 500","w_small250":"Nifty Smallcap 250"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_cash":[20.42,19.83,19.42,18.82,17.95,17.49,18.28,17.24,16.75,19.49,19.54,18.71,17.73,18.53,19.76,19.58,18.9,18.58,18.38,17.89,17.91,19.78,20.37,20.66,20.31,20.06,19.89,19.53,19.62,18.41,17.3,16.89,15.69,21.41,21.24,22.5,22.35,22.54,23.72,23.92,24.03,24.41,26.76,26.32,24.8,20.79,21.06,20.74,19.46,16.62,17.02,16.32,15.81,15.19,15.77,14.96,14.64,20.39,20.5,20.25,19.82,19.86,19.43,19.61,19.29,18.69,18.56,18.94,18.77,21.3,21.56,21.05,20.71,21.03,21.21,21.1,21.13,21.47,21.15,21.66,22.6,18.82,18.33,18.72,18.68,19.29,18.8,18.94,18.95,18.18,18.4,18.01,18.05,20.23,21.08,21.38,21.43,21.42,22.2,22.42,22.43,22.49,21.76,21.74,21.65,20.48,20.19,19.84,19.53,18.66,17.8,17.94,17.86,17.86,17.69,17.48,17.51,19.53,19.75,20.06,20.25,20.1,20.44,20.27,20.72,20.7,20.65,20.9,20.87,20.35,20.84,20.08,19.88,19.9,19.38,18.95,18.77,18.73,18.68,19.34,19.94,19.43,18.96,18.77,18.42,18.32,18.34,18.02,18.08,18.24,17.74,17.72,17.48,19.93,20.38,20.77,20.37,20.78,21.32,21.08,20.84,21.93,21.96,21.97,21.62,20.14,20.33,19.87,20.02,19.81,19.84,20.31,20.08,19.99,19.58,19.66,19.59,19.64,20.0,22.72,21.77,21.7,20.19,19.24,19.1,19.04,18.93,18.26,17.66,20.18,19.73,19.87,19.39,18.65,18.51,17.96,17.96,17.67,17.58,17.71,17.46,20.21,20.56,20.15,20.23,20.96,21.46,20.77,20.4,20.76,20.57,20.15,20.27,20.17,20.61,20.37,19.95,19.62,19.45,18.98,18.85,18.85,18.92,18.21,17.68,19.77,19.81,19.71,19.02,19.04,18.52,18.34,18.15,17.88,18.15,18.34,18.48,20.35,21.05,20.29,19.84,19.34,19.08,19.26,19.38,18.77,18.31,18.19,17.95,19.54,19.69,21.07,20.02,19.82,19.99,19.89,19.41,20.19,20.16],"w_gold":[20.61,19.03,19.47,18.39,17.89,18.73,20.08,20.02,19.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