{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:20Z","name":"Equal thirds: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_gold":[34.51,32.5,32.96,31.7,31.63,32.42,34.17,34.13,33.7,34.44,33.76,33.87,35.11,38.24,36.47,38.07,36.21,34.37,33.29,33.66,33.24,33.22,35.25,34.25,32.75,31.01,30.52,30.19,30.78,30.64,30.05,30.29,29.87,37.78,39.05,39.74,37.32,39.42,43.4,42.03,40.18,44.01,42.46,45.0,43.85,35.29,37.52,36.29,33.38,30.24,30.18,29.28,29.72,29.36,30.71,31.77,29.99,33.12,33.87,32.67,33.32,35.34,35.23,33.8,35.07,34.34,34.54,36.14,35.74,33.82,35.07,33.98,35.51,36.23,35.41,36.81,41.06,40.39,41.06,43.35,42.19,32.59,32.33,31.73,33.0,33.52,32.87,33.19,33.69,32.97,32.78,32.45,31.46,32.85,33.05,33.05,30.44,30.22,28.99,32.42,35.62,33.4,32.52,32.43,31.06,33.94,34.12,31.75,32.42,28.97,29.11,28.78,28.45,27.4,26.09,25.81,26.34,33.31,32.08,32.31,33.32,32.71,32.39,30.41,32.64,31.98,32.15,31.04,30.78,35.26,38.28,36.87,37.19,35.68,36.74,36.24,35.78,36.04,34.88,34.31,33.73,33.62,33.56,32.24,32.19,31.8,31.61,30.64,31.35,31.65,30.61,30.52,30.12,33.65,34.28,34.72,34.42,34.55,34.17,32.91,32.9,33.9,35.13,33.44,34.12,34.63,34.56,32.46,32.58,32.37,33.73,34.67,36.9,35.87,36.02,35.34,35.87,34.35,35.71,37.73,35.97,36.08,38.92,40.61,39.13,38.75,38.43,36.19,35.74,33.37,31.39,30.04,31.48,31.11,29.99,30.55,29.23,28.14,29.04,29.38,28.91,33.59,35.28,35.15,35.6,35.78,36.22,35.29,34.54,34.57,34.12,34.61,35.71,34.63,34.38,35.85,35.34,34.91,33.53,33.62,33.61,32.7,34.3,33.89,33.12,32.82,32.39,33.94,34.99,34.97,33.92,32.47,33.08,33.73,35.73,34.81,34.76,35.37,37.02,37.13,37.85,37.55,37.28,38.13,39.33,41.94,42.52,43.47,44.96,38.43,37.41,37.01,36.34,37.26,34.47,34.41,36.93,35.96,35.94],"w_gsec5":[33.66,33.38,32.65,32.31,31.55,30.07,30.95,29.31,28.49,31.88,31.72,30.12,29.01,29.87,30.94,30.1,29.83,29.83,29.73,28.91,28.96,32.98,33.34,33.71,33.29,33.44,33.51,33.27,33.23,31.3,29.34,29.06,27.87,34.59,33.9,35.41,35.31,35.07,35.24,34.84,36.23,35.78,41.46,40.5,41.11,33.14,32.79,31.8,31.26,27.61,28.14,27.08,26.46,25.49,26.0,24.66,24.58,34.39,34.07,34.09,33.76,33.35,32.78,33.26,32.36,31.41,31.21,31.1,30.9,34.9,35.08,34.42,33.58,33.53,33.98,33.61,32.87,33.52,32.11,32.48,34.17,31.76,31.22,31.63,31.31,32.45,31.85,31.95,31.79,30.82,31.21,30.68,31.06,33.7,34.89,35.09,36.08,36.23,37.44,35.36,34.37,34.97,34.29,34.47,34.65,33.92,33.37,33.49,33.22,33.44,32.32,32.56,32.25,32.73,32.93,32.65,33.08,32.78,33.24,33.85,33.92,33.83,34.07,34.71,34.78,35.46,35.16,35.91,36.14,33.52,33.3,32.64,32.26,32.62,31.77,31.48,31.45,31.69,32.21,33.83,34.22,32.38,31.6,31.68,31.22,31.34,31.65,31.28,31.28,31.27,30.72,30.74,30.23,32.68,33.11,33.68,32.6,32.9,33.36,33.3,32.69,33.78,34.1,34.56,34.35,33.16,33.45,33.41,33.27,33.53,33.21,34.14,33.16,33.08,32.56,32.79,32.36,32.98,33.68,36.88,36.3,36.75,34.1,32.29,32.35,32.71,32.67,32.18,31.35,33.66,33.12,33.7,33.2,32.26,32.37,31.91,31.54,31.49,31.05,31.56,31.33,33.52,33.36,32.82,32.52,32.93,33.59,32.81,32.56,32.97,32.59,32.04,32.05,33.41,33.97,33.39,33.13,32.89,32.88,32.24,32.44,32.57,32.29,31.5,30.79,33.42,33.44,32.63,31.54,31.62,31.1,31.29,30.98,30.48,30.63,31.18,31.51,33.11,33.61,32.63,32.09,31.9,31.44,31.52,31.11,29.71,28.88,28.31,27.61,31.36,31.96,33.83,32.77,32.33,33.83,33.57,32.27,33.64,33.52],"w_n500":[31.83,34.13,34.39,35.99,36.82,37.51,34.87,36.56,37.81,33.68,34.53,36.01,35.88,31.89,32.59,31.83,33.96,35.8,36.98,37.43,37.8,33.8,31.41,32.04,33.97,35.55,35.96,36.54,35.99,38.06,40.61,40.65,42.25,27.63,27.05,24.86,27.37,25.51,21.36,23.13,23.59,20.21,16.08,14.49,15.04,31.57,29.69,31.92,35.37,42.15,41.68,43.64,43.82,45.15,43.29,43.57,45.43,32.49,32.06,33.24,32.92,31.31,31.99,32.94,32.57,34.25,34.25,32.75,33.37,31.28,29.84,31.6,30.9,30.23,30.61,29.57,26.07,26.09,26.84,24.17,23.64,35.66,36.45,36.64,35.69,34.02,35.27,34.86,34.52,36.21,36.01,36.86,37.48,33.45,32.05,31.86,33.48,33.55,33.57,32.21,30.01,31.63,33.2,33.1,34.29,32.14,32.51,34.76,34.36,37.59,38.58,38.66,39.29,39.87,40.98,41.55,40.58,33.91,34.68,33.83,32.76,33.46,33.54,34.87,32.57,32.56,32.69,33.05,33.07,31.22,28.42,30.49,30.55,31.7,31.5,32.28,32.77,32.26,32.91,31.87,32.05,34.0,34.83,36.08,36.6,36.86,36.74,38.08,37.37,37.07,38.67,38.74,39.64,33.66,32.61,31.61,32.98,32.56,32.47,33.8,34.41,32.31,30.77,31.99,31.52,32.21,31.98,34.13,34.15,34.1,33.06,31.19,29.94,31.05,31.41,31.87,31.77,32.67,30.6,25.39,27.73,27.17,26.97,27.1,28.52,28.54,28.89,31.63,32.91,32.97,35.49,36.26,35.32,36.64,37.64,37.55,39.24,40.37,39.91,39.06,39.76,32.89,31.36,32.03,31.88,31.29,30.19,31.9,32.9,32.46,33.29,33.35,32.24,31.95,31.65,30.75,31.53,32.2,33.59,34.14,33.95,34.73,33.41,34.61,36.08,33.76,34.17,33.43,33.47,33.42,34.98,36.24,35.95,35.78,33.65,34.01,33.73,31.53,29.37,30.24,30.06,30.55,31.28,30.34,29.56,28.36,28.6,28.23,27.43,30.21,30.63,29.16,30.89,30.41,31.7,32.02,30.81,30.4,30.54]}}