{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-15T18:03:31Z","name":"Equity and debt, 65/35: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-15","n_trials":197,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-15","pe_n500":"2026-10-15","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-15"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[36.28,34.5,33.83,32.59,31.57,30.15,37.61,35.26,33.86,32.65,32.0,30.0,34.67,38.08,38.4,38.3,36.58,35.36,34.12,33.22,33.04,32.41,34.27,34.07,32.49,31.59,31.39,30.89,31.19,28.77,32.35,32.13,30.39,35.26,35.29,38.26,32.73,34.14,38.35,36.23,36.67,40.04,43.93,45.93,45.38,45.84,47.11,44.55,32.61,26.4,26.99,25.36,24.84,23.61,36.52,35.15,34.14,35.24,35.33,34.52,35.17,36.03,35.15,34.81,34.45,32.66,35.27,36.22,35.64,38.0,39.23,37.43,35.01,35.47,35.5,36.04,38.46,38.91,33.02,35.64,37.33,34.8,33.92,34.1,35.49,37.42,36.15,36.5,36.61,34.79,35.51,34.58,34.48,34.52,36.29,36.56,34.63,34.68,35.41,35.05,36.02,35.21,33.58,33.77,33.1,34.27,33.66,32.25,35.11,33.24,31.92,32.03,31.47,31.48,34.41,33.91,34.74,33.89,33.7,34.67,36.05,35.5,35.61,35.14,36.76,37.21,34.77,34.99,35.13,36.71,38.76,36.64,34.67,34.08,33.63,32.88,32.53,33.04,35.24,37.12,37.25,36.16,35.05,34.31,34.5,34.42,34.72,33.65,34.07,34.24,33.76,33.74,32.86,32.33,33.31,34.4,33.57,34.07,34.45,33.5,32.7,34.84,36.4,35.81,36.02,36.58,36.95,35.42,34.97,35.18,35.67,37.66,37.95,37.03,34.07,33.91,33.68,33.9,35.86,42.46,31.93,32.64,31.17,29.92,28.89,29.11,34.89,32.53,31.09,31.44,29.53,29.45,35.55,34.07,33.55,33.28,32.05,31.4,34.9,35.76,35.19,35.33,36.31,35.45,35.19,35.9,37.2,35.38,34.51,35.1,33.93,33.5,34.27,35.17,35.76,36.03,34.32,33.67,32.74,31.95,32.21,31.8,35.63,34.27,32.83,32.57,32.32,32.26,34.45,34.54,33.15,32.5,32.46,32.21,36.53,36.69,37.13,38.17,40.23,38.81,34.47,33.96,33.12,33.85,34.14,34.03,34.28,34.12,34.21,35.03,35.15,37.6,33.43,33.47,33.56,33.17,33.14,34.37,34.53],"w_n500":[63.72,65.5,66.17,67.41,68.43,69.85,62.39,64.74,66.14,67.35,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