{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-15T18:03:31Z","name":"Equity and debt, 50/50: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-15","n_trials":197,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-15","pe_n500":"2026-10-15","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-15"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[51.4,49.44,48.7,47.31,46.15,44.49,52.83,50.29,48.74,47.38,46.64,44.32,49.64,53.32,53.66,53.55,51.72,50.4,49.03,48.02,47.82,47.1,49.2,48.98,47.19,46.17,45.94,45.36,45.71,42.86,47.04,46.79,44.78,50.29,50.32,53.51,47.47,49.05,53.6,51.34,51.82,55.36,59.27,61.21,60.68,61.12,62.32,59.87,47.33,39.98,40.7,38.69,38.04,36.47,51.66,50.17,49.06,50.27,50.36,49.47,50.18,51.13,50.17,49.79,49.39,47.39,50.3,51.33,50.7,53.23,54.53,52.63,50.01,50.52,50.54,51.13,53.72,54.19,47.8,50.7,52.52,49.78,48.81,49.0,50.53,52.62,51.25,51.63,51.75,49.77,50.55,49.54,49.43,49.47,51.4,51.69,49.6,49.65,50.45,50.06,51.12,50.23,48.43,48.63,47.89,49.2,48.51,46.92,50.12,48.04,46.54,46.68,46.03,46.04,49.35,48.8,49.71,48.77,48.56,49.63,51.15,50.55,50.67,50.16,51.91,52.4,49.75,49.99,50.14,51.85,54.03,51.78,49.64,48.98,48.48,47.64,47.24,47.82,50.27,52.29,52.44,51.27,50.06,49.24,49.44,49.36,49.7,48.5,48.97,49.17,48.63,48.6,47.62,47.01,48.13,49.33,48.42,48.97,49.39,48.33,47.43,49.82,51.53,50.89,51.11,51.72,52.11,50.46,49.97,50.2,50.73,52.87,53.18,52.2,48.97,48.79,48.53,48.78,50.94,57.81,46.56,47.36,45.69,44.22,43.01,43.27,49.88,47.24,45.59,45.99,43.77,43.67,50.61,48.97,48.39,48.09,46.7,45.95,49.89,50.84,50.21,50.36,51.42,50.49,50.21,50.99,52.39,50.42,49.46,50.1,48.81,48.34,49.19,50.18,50.83,51.13,49.25,48.53,47.48,46.58,46.88,46.4,50.69,49.19,47.58,47.28,47.01,46.94,49.39,49.49,47.94,47.2,47.16,46.88,51.66,51.84,52.31,53.41,55.55,54.09,49.41,48.85,47.91,48.73,49.05,48.93,49.21,49.03,49.13,50.04,50.16,52.81,48.26,48.3,48.4,47.96,47.93,49.3,49.48],"w_n500":[48.6,50.56,51.3,52.69,53.85,55.51,47.17,49.71,51.26,52.62,53.36,55.68,50.36,46.68,46.34,46.45,48.28,49.6,50.97,51.98,52.18,52.9,50.8,51.02,52.81,53.83,54.06,54.64,54.29,57.14,52.96,53.21,55.22,49.71,49.68,46.49,52.53,50.95,46.4,48.66,48.18,44.64,40.73,38.79,39.32,38.88,37.68,40.13,52.67,60.02,59.3,61.31,61.96,63.53,48.34,49.83,50.94,49.73,49.64,50.53,49.82,48.87,49.83,50.21,50.61,52.61,49.7,48.67,49.3,46.77,45.47,47.37,49.99,49.48,49.46,48.87,46.28,45.81,52.2,49.3,47.48,50.22,51.19,51.0,49.47,47.38,48.75,48.37,48.25,50.23,49.45,50.46,50.57,50.53,48.6,48.31,50.4,50.35,49.55,49.94,48.88,49.77,51.57,51.37,52.11,50.8,51.49,53.08,49.88,51.96,53.46,53.32,53.97,53.96,50.65,51.2,50.29,51.23,51.44,50.37,48.85,49.45,49.33,49.84,48.09,47.6,50.25,50.01,49.86,48.15,45.97,48.22,50.36,51.02,51.52,52.36,52.76,52.18,49.73,47.71,47.56,48.73,49.94,50.76,50.56,50.64,50.3,51.5,51.03,50.83,51.37,51.4,52.38,52.99,51.87,50.67,51.58,51.03,50.61,51.67,52.57,50.18,48.47,49.11,48.89,48.28,47.89,49.54,50.03,49.8,49.27,47.13,46.82,47.8,51.03,51.21,51.47,51.22,49.06,42.19,53.44,52.64,54.31,55.78,56.99,56.73,50.12,52.76,54.41,54.01,56.23,56.33,49.39,51.03,51.61,51.91,53.3,54.05,50.11,49.16,49.79,49.64,48.58,49.51,49.79,49.01,47.61,49.58,50.54,49.9,51.19,51.66,50.81,49.82,49.17,48.87,50.75,51.47,52.52,53.42,53.12,53.6,49.31,50.81,52.42,52.72,52.99,53.06,50.61,50.51,52.06,52.8,52.84,53.12,48.34,48.16,47.69,46.59,44.45,45.91,50.59,51.15,52.09,51.27,50.95,51.07,50.79,50.97,50.87,49.96,49.84,47.19,51.74,51.7,51.6,52.04,52.07,50.7,50.52]}}