{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-15T18:03:32Z","name":"Equity and debt, 25/75: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-15","n_trials":197,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-15","pe_n500":"2026-10-15","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-14","because":{"gold":"2026-10-14"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-15"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[76.03,74.58,74.02,72.92,72.0,70.63,77.06,75.22,74.04,72.99,72.4,70.49,74.73,77.41,77.65,77.58,76.27,75.3,74.26,73.49,73.33,72.76,74.39,74.22,72.83,72.01,71.83,71.35,71.64,69.23,72.72,72.51,70.88,75.22,75.24,77.55,73.05,74.28,77.61,75.99,76.34,78.82,81.36,82.56,82.24,82.51,83.23,81.74,72.95,66.65,67.32,65.44,64.81,63.27,76.23,75.14,74.29,75.21,75.28,74.61,75.14,75.84,75.12,74.84,74.54,72.99,75.22,75.99,75.52,77.35,78.25,76.92,75.01,75.39,75.41,75.84,77.69,78.01,73.31,75.52,76.85,74.84,74.09,74.24,75.4,76.92,75.93,76.2,76.29,74.83,75.41,74.65,74.57,74.6,76.04,76.25,74.7,74.74,75.34,75.05,75.83,75.18,73.8,73.96,73.38,74.39,73.87,72.62,75.09,73.5,72.31,72.42,71.9,71.91,74.51,74.09,74.78,74.07,73.91,74.72,75.85,75.41,75.5,75.12,76.41,76.76,74.81,74.99,75.11,76.37,77.91,76.31,74.73,74.23,73.84,73.19,72.87,73.33,75.2,76.68,76.79,75.94,75.04,74.43,74.58,74.52,74.77,73.86,74.22,74.37,73.96,73.94,73.17,72.69,73.57,74.5,73.79,74.22,74.54,73.73,73.02,74.86,76.13,75.66,75.82,76.26,76.55,75.34,74.98,75.15,75.55,77.1,77.31,76.62,74.22,74.08,73.88,74.07,75.7,80.44,72.33,72.97,71.62,70.4,69.36,69.59,74.91,72.87,71.55,71.87,70.02,69.94,75.45,74.22,73.77,73.54,72.44,71.83,74.92,75.62,75.16,75.27,76.05,75.37,75.16,75.73,76.75,75.31,74.59,75.08,74.1,73.73,74.39,75.14,75.62,75.84,74.43,73.88,73.06,72.35,72.58,72.2,75.52,74.39,73.14,72.91,72.69,72.63,74.54,74.62,73.42,72.84,72.81,72.58,76.23,76.36,76.69,77.48,78.95,77.95,74.56,74.13,73.4,74.03,74.28,74.19,74.4,74.27,74.34,75.03,75.12,77.05,73.67,73.71,73.78,73.44,73.42,74.47,74.61],"w_n500":[23.97,25.42,25.98,27.08,28.0,29.37,22.94,24.78,25.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