{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Dynamic allocation: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-06"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[54.47,52.53,51.79,50.39,49.23,47.56,50.11,47.57,41.4,46.13,45.39,43.08,49.64,53.32,59.77,59.68,50.93,49.61,48.72,47.71,47.51,46.79,48.89,48.67,46.9,45.88,45.65,45.06,45.41,42.56,47.04,46.78,44.78,55.6,68.66,71.35,69.28,64.15,68.22,47.81,48.29,51.85,61.05,53.35,52.8,41.16,47.85,45.28,33.82,27.47,54.15,52.06,46.35,44.68,51.67,50.19,49.07,50.28,50.38,56.93,48.1,49.05,57.36,51.06,50.66,54.63,54.47,55.49,63.61,65.93,67.09,65.38,65.33,65.79,65.81,66.34,68.61,59.73,58.01,53.12,60.8,52.82,51.85,52.05,52.45,61.0,59.69,47.96,48.08,58.3,46.31,45.31,39.02,39.06,46.21,53.48,52.94,46.54,47.34,61.62,62.61,52.92,46.35,46.56,45.81,47.12,56.07,44.24,44.33,42.29,48.96,49.09,48.45,48.46,54.36,53.8,54.71,53.78,53.57,54.64,64.8,72.37,72.46,72.05,58.06,79.94,79.74,72.65,72.77,74.1,81.36,79.95,65.93,65.34,57.06,56.24,55.85,50.52,59.01,60.95,69.98,68.99,54.25,53.44,52.71,52.63,52.96,51.77,52.24,52.44,59.94,50.22,49.23,48.62,49.74,68.46,72.5,54.15,66.48,74.08,54.05,56.41,77.33,76.88,71.48,66.9,79.17,78.05,53.73,53.96,54.49,64.61,76.26,75.54,66.59,54.87,54.61,54.86,62.66,78.61,76.81,77.38,67.88,60.03,58.84,53.94,53.6,50.96,49.31,49.71,56.5,51.51,51.79,55.94,49.4,49.1,47.71,46.96,46.9,58.75,58.15,58.29,59.32,70.64,57.72,64.02,73.07,71.49,56.75,51.35,62.68,51.7,52.55,62.44,71.45,71.69,71.02,60.69,53.74,52.85,53.15,52.67,53.42,61.49,47.04,46.74,46.47,46.4,53.14,53.24,51.69,50.96,50.92,50.63,52.28,67.78,68.18,77.12,78.61,77.6,66.03,65.52,55.34,56.15,64.86,70.6,69.83,49.93,50.02,57.17,70.8,72.94,71.15,61.74,61.83,56.39,56.36,57.71,70.21],"w_n500":[45.53,47.47,48.21,49.61,50.77,52.44,49.89,52.43,58.6,53.87,54.61,56.92,50.36,46.68,40.23,40.32,49.07,50.39,51.28,52.29,52.49,53.21,51.11,51.33,53.1,54.12,54.35,54.94,54.59,57.44,52.96,53.22,55.22,44.4,31.34,28.65,30.72,35.85,31.78,52.19,51.71,48.15,38.95,46.65,47.2,58.84,52.15,54.72,66.18,72.53,45.85,47.94,53.65,55.32,48.33,49.81,50.93,49.72,49.62,43.07,51.9,50.95,42.64,48.94,49.34,45.37,45.53,44.51,36.39,34.07,32.91,34.62,34.67,34.21,34.19,33.66,31.39,40.27,41.99,46.88,39.2,47.18,48.15,47.95,47.55,39.0,40.31,52.04,51.92,41.7,53.69,54.69,60.98,60.94,53.79,46.52,47.06,53.46,52.66,38.38,37.39,47.08,53.65,53.44,54.19,52.88,43.93,55.76,55.67,57.71,51.04,50.91,51.55,51.54,45.64,46.2,45.29,46.22,46.43,45.36,35.2,27.63,27.54,27.95,41.94,20.06,20.26,27.35,27.23,25.9,18.64,20.05,34.07,34.66,42.94,43.76,44.15,49.48,40.99,39.05,30.02,31.01,45.75,46.56,47.29,47.37,47.04,48.23,47.76,47.56,40.06,49.78,50.77,51.38,50.26,31.54,27.5,45.85,33.52,25.92,45.95,43.59,22.67,23.12,28.52,33.1,20.83,21.95,46.27,46.04,45.51,35.39,23.74,24.46,33.41,45.13,45.39,45.14,37.34,21.39,23.19,22.62,32.12,39.97,41.16,46.06,46.4,49.04,50.69,50.29,43.5,48.49,48.21,44.06,50.6,50.9,52.29,53.04,53.1,41.25,41.85,41.71,40.68,29.36,42.28,35.98,26.93,28.51,43.25,48.65,37.32,48.3,47.45,37.56,28.55,28.31,28.98,39.31,46.26,47.15,46.85,47.33,46.58,38.51,52.96,53.26,53.53,53.6,46.86,46.76,48.31,49.04,49.08,49.37,47.72,32.22,31.82,22.88,21.39,22.4,33.97,34.48,44.66,43.85,35.14,29.4,30.17,50.07,49.98,42.83,29.2,27.06,28.85,38.26,38.17,43.61,43.64,42.29,29.79]}}