{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-14T18:04:36Z","name":"Countercyclical indexing: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-14","n_trials":197,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-14","pe_n500":"2026-10-14","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_n500":"Nifty 500"}},"dates":["2005-04-29","2005-05-31","2005-06-30","2005-07-29","2005-08-31","2005-09-30","2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-14"],"series":{"w_gsec5":[39.78,37.92,37.23,35.93,34.87,39.11,41.56,39.12,37.65,41.83,41.11,45.16,44.31,54.05,44.54,44.44,42.63,41.34,45.71,44.72,51.96,51.24,53.33,53.11,51.34,50.32,50.08,49.5,54.49,51.61,48.37,61.79,59.87,70.29,61.34,64.33,56.27,57.82,62.19,48.12,54.31,57.82,59.55,45.84,45.29,45.75,47.01,44.46,41.52,34.48,45.67,49.36,48.68,52.09,53.63,52.15,51.04,58.24,58.33,57.46,57.47,58.39,57.45,57.09,56.69,54.72,54.55,55.58,54.95,57.45,58.72,56.86,56.8,57.3,57.32,57.9,60.4,54.43,52.66,55.54,52.59,49.85,48.87,49.07,49.47,51.56,50.19,50.57,50.69,48.71,49.16,48.15,48.04,48.08,50.02,50.31,49.76,49.82,50.62,50.23,51.28,45.49,43.81,44.01,43.27,50.64,49.95,48.36,48.45,46.38,44.88,52.52,51.87,51.88,51.34,50.79,51.7,50.76,50.55,57.35,58.19,52.13,52.24,51.73,53.48,53.97,53.66,53.91,54.06,55.75,57.9,47.03,46.7,46.05,45.55,44.72,49.7,50.28,50.19,52.22,52.36,51.19,49.98,49.16,53.68,53.6,53.93,52.74,53.21,53.4,51.9,51.87,50.88,55.26,56.36,57.55,55.7,56.25,56.66,55.62,54.73,57.08,58.5,51.2,51.42,52.03,52.43,50.77,50.65,50.88,51.41,53.55,53.86,52.88,52.2,52.02,51.76,52.01,54.16,60.93,40.42,41.2,39.58,45.57,44.35,44.61,44.28,41.69,47.71,54.08,51.84,51.75,52.02,50.39,49.8,54.96,53.58,52.83,52.77,53.71,53.09,58.62,59.64,58.74,58.63,59.38,55.68,53.72,52.77,53.41,52.5,52.03,58.22,59.18,59.81,60.09,59.3,58.61,57.58,56.7,56.99,56.52,57.26,55.79,54.19,59.5,59.24,59.17,58.31,58.41,56.89,61.71,61.67,61.4,62.95,63.12,63.55,64.57,66.52,59.39,59.14,58.59,57.67,63.78,64.08,63.97,63.12,62.96,63.05,63.89,64.01,66.41,64.39,64.43,64.53,64.12,64.1,65.35,65.22],"w_n500":[60.22,62.08,62.77,64.07,65.13,60.89,58.44,60.88,62.35,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