{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-14T18:04:36Z","name":"Adaptive asset allocation: holdings at each month-end","resolution":"month-end","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-14","n_trials":197,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-14","pe_n500":"2026-10-14","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-13","because":{"gold":"2026-10-13"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates).","assets":{"w_n100":"Nifty 100","w_gsec5":"G-sec 5-year (NSE benchmark index)","w_mid150":"Nifty Midcap 150","w_small250":"Nifty Smallcap 250","w_gold":"Gold (domestic, rupees)","w_other":"Everything else"}},"dates":["2005-10-31","2005-11-30","2005-12-30","2006-01-31","2006-02-28","2006-03-31","2006-04-29","2006-05-31","2006-06-30","2006-07-31","2006-08-31","2006-09-29","2006-10-31","2006-11-30","2006-12-29","2007-01-31","2007-02-28","2007-03-30","2007-04-30","2007-05-31","2007-06-29","2007-07-31","2007-08-31","2007-09-28","2007-10-31","2007-11-30","2007-12-31","2008-01-31","2008-02-29","2008-03-31","2008-04-30","2008-05-30","2008-06-30","2008-07-31","2008-08-29","2008-09-30","2008-10-31","2008-11-28","2008-12-31","2009-01-30","2009-02-27","2009-03-31","2009-04-29","2009-05-29","2009-06-30","2009-07-31","2009-08-31","2009-09-30","2009-10-30","2009-11-30","2009-12-31","2010-01-29","2010-02-26","2010-03-31","2010-04-30","2010-05-31","2010-06-30","2010-07-30","2010-08-31","2010-09-30","2010-10-29","2010-11-30","2010-12-31","2011-01-31","2011-02-28","2011-03-31","2011-04-29","2011-05-31","2011-06-30","2011-07-29","2011-08-30","2011-09-30","2011-10-31","2011-11-30","2011-12-30","2012-01-31","2012-02-29","2012-03-30","2012-04-30","2012-05-31","2012-06-29","2012-07-31","2012-08-31","2012-09-28","2012-10-31","2012-11-30","2012-12-31","2013-01-31","2013-02-28","2013-03-28","2013-04-30","2013-05-31","2013-06-28","2013-07-31","2013-08-30","2013-09-30","2013-10-31","2013-11-29","2013-12-31","2014-01-31","2014-02-28","2014-03-31","2014-04-30","2014-05-30","2014-06-30","2014-07-31","2014-08-28","2014-09-30","2014-10-31","2014-11-28","2014-12-31","2015-01-30","2015-02-28","2015-03-31","2015-04-30","2015-05-29","2015-06-30","2015-07-31","2015-08-31","2015-09-30","2015-10-30","2015-11-30","2015-12-31","2016-01-29","2016-02-29","2016-03-31","2016-04-29","2016-05-31","2016-06-30","2016-07-29","2016-08-31","2016-09-30","2016-10-30","2016-11-30","2016-12-30","2017-01-31","2017-02-28","2017-03-31","2017-04-28","2017-05-31","2017-06-30","2017-07-31","2017-08-31","2017-09-29","2017-10-31","2017-11-30","2017-12-29","2018-01-31","2018-02-28","2018-03-28","2018-04-30","2018-05-31","2018-06-29","2018-07-31","2018-08-31","2018-09-28","2018-10-31","2018-11-30","2018-12-31","2019-01-31","2019-02-28","2019-03-29","2019-04-30","2019-05-31","2019-06-28","2019-07-31","2019-08-30","2019-09-30","2019-10-31","2019-11-29","2019-12-31","2020-01-31","2020-02-28","2020-03-31","2020-04-30","2020-05-29","2020-06-30","2020-07-31","2020-08-31","2020-09-30","2020-10-30","2020-11-27","2020-12-31","2021-01-29","2021-02-26","2021-03-31","2021-04-30","2021-05-31","2021-06-30","2021-07-30","2021-08-31","2021-09-30","2021-10-29","2021-11-30","2021-12-31","2022-01-31","2022-02-28","2022-03-31","2022-04-29","2022-05-31","2022-06-30","2022-07-29","2022-08-30","2022-09-30","2022-10-31","2022-11-30","2022-12-30","2023-01-31","2023-02-28","2023-03-31","2023-04-28","2023-05-31","2023-06-30","2023-07-31","2023-08-31","2023-09-29","2023-10-31","2023-11-30","2023-12-29","2024-01-31","2024-02-29","2024-03-28","2024-04-30","2024-05-31","2024-06-28","2024-07-31","2024-08-30","2024-09-30","2024-10-31","2024-11-29","2024-12-31","2025-01-31","2025-02-28","2025-03-28","2025-04-30","2025-05-30","2025-06-30","2025-07-31","2025-08-29","2025-09-30","2025-10-31","2025-11-28","2025-12-31","2026-01-30","2026-02-27","2026-03-30","2026-04-30","2026-05-29","2026-06-30","2026-07-31","2026-08-31","2026-09-30","2026-10-14"],"series":{"w_n100":[66.1,64.52,54.34,0.83,28.59,24.28,23.77,21.06,0.0,25.76,0.0,29.27,24.35,8.54,40.28,37.7,28.47,26.14,17.79,2.37,2.2,0.0,6.43,0.0,0.0,0.0,8.23,14.7,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,22.95,32.91,31.07,40.26,46.93,49.3,0.0,55.58,56.72,0.0,71.68,57.15,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,26.91,37.96,17.86,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,22.97,14.19,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,28.84,3.93,29.48,71.01,91.95,4.8,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,33.09,31.48,33.12,0.0,0.0,52.9,51.08,53.03,67.15,82.42,92.31,100.0,100.0,90.25,88.45,89.63,55.55,52.47,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,21.23,37.57,70.83,79.28,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,73.37,89.74,98.95,96.83,90.02,100.0,100.0,78.64,62.29,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,28.76,36.5,10.04,49.48,2.75,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,8.28,62.07,1.55,31.43,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,69.76,72.46,62.49,51.4,53.76,31.97,15.11,36.43,56.1,0.0,0.0,0.0,77.39,95.81,0.0,0.0,86.64,0.0,0.0,0.0,8.17,0.0,14.54,67.48,2.43,2.16,48.85,66.64,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,63.1,79.22,81.06,72.62,56.81,85.8,0.0,83.98,82.01,41.93,45.21,75.03,64.84,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,19.81,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,53.66,55.94,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"w_gsec5":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,53.24,56.05,69.85,63.57,69.52,68.9,50.27,49.27,49.1,64.9,65.47,74.25,65.62,74.1,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,76.56,73.24,71.73,52.46,55.32,77.23,83.72,80.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,89.29,0.0,67.5,78.53,0.0,91.25,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,64.47,59.17,68.76,72.73,54.31,54.46,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,58.77,0.0,0.0,99.83,0.0,57.17,47.52,45.39,93.57,92.49,82.36,78.67,72.1,67.47,60.16,49.49,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,80.92,87.52,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,75.79,0.0,85.26,58.91,72.59,71.02,73.62,75.51,86.31,0.0,61.96,0.0,73.87,94.76,0.0,80.42,0.0,52.03,0.0,0.0,44.7,41.52,36.05,32.33,33.86,59.33,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,52.76,69.03,55.51,0.0,0.0,94.83,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,63.3,85.24,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,70.35,52.88,53.73,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,67.78,65.69,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"w_mid150":[33.9,35.48,45.66,95.55,0.0,49.93,42.59,49.03,33.02,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,10.14,13.88,19.56,28.75,39.57,48.45,46.88,46.22,40.7,42.84,39.3,11.43,0.0,0.0,2.5,2.41,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,31.23,26.73,24.08,0.0,6.54,4.32,7.14,8.01,19.07,20.17,2.35,10.91,34.13,37.74,46.38,33.83,35.73,44.94,41.33,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.84,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,4.07,0.0,0.0,24.21,0.0,0.0,0.0,4.82,25.51,21.84,2.65,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,32.22,35.63,33.98,27.72,27.94,26.89,17.58,7.69,0.0,0.0,9.75,11.55,10.37,43.92,46.38,0.41,5.15,2.2,0.17,29.29,0.0,0.0,11.31,6.43,7.51,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,60.24,49.71,25.31,20.72,13.2,0.0,0.0,19.82,29.22,26.63,10.26,1.05,3.17,9.98,0.0,0.0,21.36,37.71,27.66,38.34,48.81,25.06,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,37.93,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,31.7,26.97,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,30.24,27.54,23.79,28.5,17.99,23.19,0.0,20.92,21.4,25.19,39.41,42.57,16.44,0.0,28.82,33.05,8.84,19.85,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,15.6,16.75,2.74,9.04,8.67,26.28,26.57,0.0,0.0,0.0,24.08,28.76,30.66,32.94,21.37,19.15,18.94,26.08,20.01,7.82,26.9,16.02,17.99,31.6,29.77,18.33,21.12,0.0,38.59,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,30.83,33.21,0.0,0.0,46.77,0.0,0.0,38.46,0.0,0.0,19.27,0.0,46.57,56.21,40.39],"w_small250":[0.0,0.0,0.0,3.62,37.89,0.0,0.0,29.92,11.74,0.0,0.0,13.3,0.0,0.0,49.58,48.43,51.96,45.12,42.63,49.18,50.92,53.78,52.87,57.16,60.7,88.57,91.77,85.3,19.25,15.85,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,45.82,40.35,44.85,59.74,46.53,46.39,25.15,36.41,24.21,35.33,25.97,31.94,15.77,14.78,53.62,23.94,11.16,28.15,20.71,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,75.79,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,45.01,7.15,5.4,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,20.85,8.14,13.12,21.19,19.03,5.96,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.54,1.15,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3.46,0.0,7.31,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,18.54,12.72,3.87,0.0,0.13,0.0,0.0,12.23,14.05,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,3.16,13.93,9.75,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,17.16,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,13.72,20.1,28.25,44.84,84.89,42.65,22.49,21.17,12.11,0.0,6.18,4.19,0.0,0.0,4.52,17.08,26.48,17.51,0.0,0.0,0.0,15.76,0.0,0.0,42.47,7.08,8.16,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,51.85,39.96,34.44,15.53,1.63,0.0,1.31,23.19,6.38,6.9,0.0,0.0,26.47,25.02,6.64,14.04,18.15,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,24.75,14.62,33.42,36.6,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,33.34,8.72,11.69,6.21],"w_gold":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,33.52,25.78,33.64,0.0,55.24,74.24,19.87,57.43,23.2,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,78.25,81.74,3.32,3.03,12.96,4.8,15.38,18.82,10.43,9.25,7.37,6.56,20.4,18.04,19.19,10.53,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,67.71,0.0,0.0,44.5,0.0,0.0,50.1,47.48,0.0,42.23,53.11,0.0,0.0,37.47,23.58,20.23,16.52,17.68,12.4,12.72,15.43,3.68,0.77,12.84,9.59,15.54,18.07,36.28,0.0,22.96,0.0,0.0,20.52,16.76,49.15,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,22.83,34.5,34.67,32.52,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.14,13.0,15.99,16.78,4.46,3.92,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,60.97,56.56,33.41,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,20.32,19.48,24.49,0.0,0.0,0.0,34.63,0.0,5.24,19.63,5.72,26.78,26.37,36.09,55.87,8.77,15.44,28.09,35.36,32.57,22.53,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,63.08,54.73,29.73,22.8,24.17,69.86,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,65.26,2.16,8.39,10.96,10.98,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,51.02,0.0,17.03,17.86,15.09,4.59,2.49,2.24,15.48,44.42,52.17,33.58,25.73,20.46,16.8,8.45,13.93,2.62,3.75,12.72,18.42,0.0,0.0,0.0],"w_other":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,80.13,0.0,52.45,91.46,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,43.44,40.92,17.18,31.63,15.1,12.28,39.3,41.48,43.52,28.55,14.12,7.72,15.19,15.37,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,44.68,76.42,79.77,83.48,82.32,11.04,14.04,0.0,43.86,43.91,9.93,6.7,4.46,81.93,40.74,81.73,77.04,10.71,0.0,11.98,4.72,22.01,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,95.2,35.53,40.83,31.24,27.27,45.69,22.7,32.4,33.85,34.36,46.93,56.22,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,40.82,94.85,97.8,0.0,67.25,42.83,45.17,43.29,0.0,0.0,16.5,8.34,11.91,15.75,35.37,46.58,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,86.67,19.08,12.48,67.95,56.73,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,69.19,47.73,41.43,13.97,14.68,30.09,14.17,50.52,11.99,41.09,27.41,8.66,6.9,0.0,5.41,0.0,36.49,33.94,26.13,0.0,80.37,13.86,73.22,21.6,32.21,0.0,46.53,43.04,35.86,32.31,33.58,18.14,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,53.65,48.48,57.43,0.0,0.0,71.18,66.95,0.0,0.0,18.79,0.0,0.0,20.33,0.0,0.0,0.0,88.79,0.0,0.0,0.0,34.54,6.37,89.04,64.94,19.39,29.38,32.61,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,66.2,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,30.83,61.41,82.97,82.14,84.91,25.06,44.63,44.03,64.7,0.0,0.0,33.0,37.67,32.77,29.54,35.61,47.61,29.6,30.56,68.01,48.24,44.71,32.1,53.4]}}