{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-08T19:35:19Z","name":"Valuation glide (CAPE): growth of 1","resolution":"W-SUN","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-06","n_trials":191,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-08","pe_n500":"2026-10-08"},"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Foreign legs: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"basis":"growth of 1 after costs, before tax","source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), the NSE 5-year G-sec index, the 91-day T-bill, and for foreign legs the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in rupees (ECB rates)."},"dates":["2005-04-01","2005-04-08","2005-04-15","2005-04-22","2005-04-29","2005-05-06","2005-05-13","2005-05-20","2005-05-27","2005-06-04","2005-06-10","2005-06-17","2005-06-24","2005-07-01","2005-07-08","2005-07-15","2005-07-22","2005-07-29","2005-08-05","2005-08-12","2005-08-19","2005-08-26","2005-09-02","2005-09-09","2005-09-16","2005-09-23","2005-09-30","2005-10-07","2005-10-14","2005-10-21","2005-10-28","2005-11-02","2005-11-11","2005-11-18","2005-11-26","2005-12-02","2005-12-09","2005-12-16","2005-12-23","2005-12-30","2006-01-06","2006-01-13","2006-01-20","2006-01-27","2006-02-03","2006-02-10","2006-02-17","2006-02-24","2006-03-03","2006-03-10","2006-03-17","2006-03-24","2006-03-31","2006-04-07","2006-04-13","2006-04-21","2006-04-29","2006-05-05","2006-05-12","2006-05-19","2006-05-26","2006-06-02","2006-06-09","2006-06-16","2006-06-25","2006-06-30","2006-07-07","2006-07-14","2006-07-21","2006-07-28","2006-08-04","2006-08-11","2006-08-18","2006-08-25","2006-09-01","2006-09-08","2006-09-15","2006-09-22","2006-09-29","2006-10-06","2006-10-13","2006-10-21","2006-10-27","2006-11-03","2006-11-10","2006-11-17","2006-11-24","2006-12-01","2006-12-08","2006-12-15","2006-12-22","2006-12-29","2007-01-05","2007-01-12","2007-01-19","2007-01-25","2007-02-02","2007-02-09","2007-02-15","2007-02-23","2007-03-02","2007-03-09","2007-03-16","2007-03-23","2007-03-30","2007-04-05","2007-04-13","2007-04-20","2007-04-27","2007-05-04","2007-05-11","2007-05-18","2007-05-25","2007-06-01","2007-06-08","2007-06-15","2007-06-22","2007-06-29","2007-07-06","2007-07-13","2007-07-20","2007-07-27","2007-08-03","2007-08-10","2007-08-17","2007-08-24","2007-08-31","2007-09-07","2007-09-14","2007-09-21","2007-09-28","2007-10-05","2007-10-12","2007-10-19","2007-10-26","2007-11-02","2007-11-09","2007-11-16","2007-11-23","2007-11-30","2007-12-07","2007-12-14","2007-12-20","2007-12-28","2008-01-04","2008-01-11","2008-01-18","2008-01-25","2008-02-01","2008-02-08","2008-02-15","2008-02-22","2008-02-29","2008-03-07","2008-03-14","2008-03-19","2008-03-28","2008-04-04","2008-04-11","2008-04-17","2008-04-25","2008-05-02","2008-05-09","2008-05-16","2008-05-23","2008-05-30","2008-06-06","2008-06-13","2008-06-20","2008-06-27","2008-07-04","2008-07-11","2008-07-18","2008-07-25","2008-08-01","2008-08-08","2008-08-14","2008-08-22","2008-08-29","2008-09-05","2008-09-12","2008-09-19","2008-09-26","2008-10-03","2008-10-10","2008-10-17","2008-10-24","2008-10-31","2008-11-07","2008-11-14","2008-11-21","2008-11-28","2008-12-05","2008-12-12","2008-12-19","2008-12-26","2009-01-02","2009-01-09","2009-01-16","2009-01-23","2009-01-30","2009-02-06","2009-02-13","2009-02-20","2009-02-27","2009-03-06","2009-03-13","2009-03-20","2009-03-27","2009-04-02","2009-04-09","2009-04-17","2009-04-24","2009-04-29","2009-05-08","2009-05-15","2009-05-22","2009-05-29","2009-06-05","2009-06-12","2009-06-19","2009-06-26","2009-07-03","2009-07-10","2009-07-17","2009-07-24","2009-07-31","2009-08-07","2009-08-14","2009-08-21","2009-08-28","2009-09-04","2009-09-11","2009-09-18","2009-09-25","2009-10-01","2009-10-09","2009-10-17","2009-10-23","2009-10-30","2009-11-06","2009-11-13","2009-11-20","2009-11-27","2009-12-04","2009-12-11","2009-12-18","2009-12-24","2009-12-31","2010-01-08","2010-01-15","2010-01-22","2010-01-29","2010-02-06","2010-02-11","2010-02-19","2010-02-26","2010-03-05","2010-03-12","2010-03-19","2010-03-26","2010-04-01","2010-04-09","2010-04-16","2010-04-23","2010-04-30","2010-05-07","2010-05-14","2010-05-21","2010-05-28","2010-06-04","2010-06-11","2010-06-18","2010-06-25","2010-07-02","2010-07-09","2010-07-16","2010-07-23","2010-07-30","2010-08-06","2010-08-13","2010-08-20","2010-08-27","2010-09-03","2010-09-09","2010-09-17","2010-09-24","2010-10-01","2010-10-08","2010-10-15","2010-10-22","2010-10-29","2010-11-05","2010-11-12","2010-11-19","2010-11-26","2010-12-03","2010-12-10","2010-12-16","2010-12-24","2010-12-31","2011-01-07","2011-01-14","2011-01-21","2011-01-28","2011-02-04","2011-02-11","2011-02-18","2011-02-25","2011-03-04","2011-03-11","2011-03-18","2011-03-25","2011-04-01","2011-04-08","2011-04-15","2011-04-21","2011-04-29","2011-05-06","2011-05-13","2011-05-20","2011-05-27","2011-06-03","2011-06-10","2011-06-17","2011-06-24","2011-07-01","2011-07-08","2011-07-15","2011-07-22","2011-07-29","2011-08-05","2011-08-12","2011-08-19","2011-08-26","2011-09-02","2011-09-09","2011-09-16","2011-09-23","2011-09-30","2011-10-07","2011-10-14","2011-10-21","2011-10-28","2011-11-04","2011-11-11","2011-11-18","2011-11-25","2011-12-02","2011-12-09","2011-12-16","2011-12-23","2011-12-30","2012-01-07","2012-01-13","2012-01-20","2012-01-27","2012-02-03","2012-02-10","2012-02-17","2012-02-24","2012-03-03","2012-03-09","2012-03-16","2012-03-23","2012-03-30","2012-04-04","2012-04-13","2012-04-20","2012-04-28","2012-05-04","2012-05-11","2012-05-18","2012-05-25","2012-06-01","2012-06-08","2012-06-15","2012-06-22","2012-06-29","2012-07-06","2012-07-13","2012-07-20","2012-07-27","2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