{"schema":1,"generated_at":"2026-10-17T02:09:59Z","name":"Trend, global equity, ACWI (ETF version): growth of 1","resolution":"W-SUN","meta":{"spec":"docs/research/models_v1_spec.md","disclaimer":"Rules registered in advance and tracked in public. Not investment advice: a model's holdings describe what its rule says, not what anyone should buy. Backtests before a model's entry date are not evidence of future results.","as_of":"2026-10-16","n_trials":203,"signal_freshness":{"cape":"2026-08-31","yield_gap":"2026-10-16","pe_n500":"2026-10-16","mcap_gdp":"2026-09-30","govt_debt":"2026-10-01"},"stale_prices":{"ivv_nav_inr":{"last_change":"2026-10-13","sessions_behind":3}},"live_held":{"trend_local":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_global":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa_global":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"dual_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_spx":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_ndx":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_world_ivv":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa_ivv":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_ivv":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_world_acwi":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gtaa_acwi":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"gem_acwi":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"size_dm":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_india":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"trend_world":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"size_rotation":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"dyn_alloc":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"one_over_n_india":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"one_over_n_global":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"robust_trend":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"robust_momentum":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"adaptive_allocation":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"countercyclical":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"erc":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"min_variance":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"inverse_vol":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"hrp":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"max_diversification":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"all_weather":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"golden_butterfly":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15"}},"endowment":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"valuation_cape":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"valuation_yield_gap":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"paa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"daa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"vaa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"baa":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"sixty_forty_trend":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ensemble_equal":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"sixty_twenty_twenty":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"sixty_forty":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ed_65_35":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ed_50_50":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"ed_25_75":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gsec5":"2026-10-15"}},"permanent":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15"}},"equal_thirds":{"to":"2026-10-15","because":{"gold":"2026-10-15","gsec5":"2026-10-15"}}},"live_rebuilds":[{"id":"2026-10-14-carried-prices","applied_at":"2026-10-14 20:51:44","rows_superseded":273,"last_date_superseded":"2026-10-13","archive":"models_live_log.superseded.2026-10-14-carried-prices.parquet","reason":"From 1 to 13 October 2026 the log was written from a panel that carried the 5-year G-sec forward between weekly fetches and gold forward on evening runs (gold lands after E1), so rows recorded flat prices for days the source had not yet posted. The daily G-sec fetch and the live-log hold fix the cause."}],"notes":["Returns after costs. After-tax figures: resident individual in the 30% slab, Indian capital-gains rules by date, everything sold at the end.","Older index-input versions: S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 price indices in rupees, held through LRS (0.60% each way, 0.10% a year), one session behind the NSE close.","ETF versions: official IVV or ACWI workbook NAVs plus ex-date distributions, before investor tax and withholding; no additional fund expense drag. Execution costs assumed at 0.60% each way. Histories begin only after the fund and signal warm-up.","dsr_* is the deflated Sharpe ratio over all counted trials; 0.95 is the usual bar."],"basis":"growth of 1 after costs, before tax","source":"tipsheet models, computed from NSE total-return indices, domestic gold (World Gold Council), G-secs, the 91-day T-bill, and foreign index or iShares ETF NAV total returns in INR (ECB rates), as specified for each 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