What’s new

• Alpex will build a 5 GW ingot and wafer plant by FY30, starting with a 200 MW pilot in April 2027.
• Full-scale cell production at Kosi is delayed to August 2026, three months later than the prior guide.
• EBITDA margin guidance for the cell business was cut to 25% from 29-30%.

Why it matters

Alpex is spending capital it had previously decided not to spend, while pushing back its near-term production milestone and trimming its margin outlook. The combination of heavier capex, delayed revenue, and lower margins is a triple negative on near-term returns. The ₹10,000 cr revenue target now hinges on a project management execution the company has yet to demonstrate at scale.

What we’re watching

• The April 2027 pilot commissioning date for the ingot facility.
• August 2026 Kosi cell production start and actual utilization ramp.
• How Iran-war supply chain disruptions and freight costs affect H1 earnings.

The full read

Alpex Solar doubled down on a strategy it had explicitly set aside. Management will now build a 5 GW ingot and wafer facility by FY30, starting with a 200 MW pilot in April 2027. This is the same company that had previously concluded backward integration wasn't the right move. The timing is also awkward. Full-scale cell production at Kosi slips to August 2026, three months late, and EBITDA margin guidance for that business drops to 25% from 29-30%. So Alpex is spending more capex, later, for less margin. The FY30 target of ₹10,000 cr revenue is against an FY26 base of ₹2,223 cr, up 2.85x year-on-year. Management blamed the Iran war for tripling freight costs and disrupting glass supply, but said things were normalising. The open question is whether a company that just delayed its simplest production milestone can deliver the most complex one.

Primary source: NSE